五月色丁香综缴合

五月色丁香综缴合Defending Witches Since 2005.

23 June 2020

Presidential Race Polling Summary Four And A Half Months Out

The polls need to swing towards Trump by roughly 6.6 percentage points (implying national polling in favor of Biden by 2.6 percentage points), allowing Trump to take Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina, Ohio, Georgia, Iowa and Texas (but not Florida, New Hampshire, Nevada or Michigan) for Trump to win the electoral college, according to the FiveThirtyEight blog.
Overall — assuming that states that haven’t been polled go the same way as they did in 2016 — Biden leads in states worth 368 electoral votes, while Trump leads in states totalling 170 electoral votes. 
But a potential problem for Biden is that Trump could have an Electoral College advantage if the election tightens. Biden currently leads Trump by “only” 6.6 points in the current tipping-point state, Minnesota, but this is narrower than Biden’s 9.2-point lead in the national polls.

From here.


* * *
Polling aggregation at Real Clear Politics largely confirms this assessment.


New Mexico Biden + 11.0
Virginia Biden + 11.0
Minnesota Biden + 10.5
Colorado Biden + 10.0 (August 2019)
Maine Biden +10 (no CD breakdown, ignores old polls).
Michigan Biden + 8.0
New Hampshire Biden + 4.3
Nevada Biden + 4.0
Ohio Trump +0.5
Iowa Trump + 1.5
Texas Trump + 1.5
Georgia Trump + 7.5
South Carolina Trump + 12.0 (ignores old poll)

National Biden + 10.1

Betting Odds  Biden 56.8% Trump 36.8%.

* * *


Cook's Political Report leans far to the right of FiveThirtyEight in its predictions, but the trends still aren't good for Trump in its June 2020 assessment
This means there are 248 Electoral votes in the Lean to Solid Democratic category and 204 Electoral votes in Lean to Solid Republican. There are 86 Electoral votes in Toss Up.
To win the Electoral College, Biden needs 22 of the 86 votes in its "toss up" category. This would be Florida, or any two of the other four "toss up" states in their assessment.

Trump needs 66 of the 86 votes in its "toss up" category. Thus, he needs four out of five "toss up" states, one of which must be Florida (and also Ohio, Iowa, Georgia and Texas), to win.

Let's recall how many Electoral College votes some of these swing states have:

Maine (4)
Michigan (16)
New Hampshire (4)

Minnesota (10)

Florida (29)
Wisconsin (10)
Pennsylvania (20)
Arizona (11)
North Carolina (15)

Ohio (18)
Texas (38)
Iowa (6)
Georgia (16)



The states that Cook's rates as "Lean R" are polling 0.7 percentage points for Trump to 2.7 points for Biden and are really the "toss up" states that are in statistical ties.

The states that Cook's rates as "toss up" are polling 3.0 to 6.9 percentage points for Biden and are really "Leans D" states.

The states that Cook's rates "Leans D" are polling 6.6 to 10.2 percentage points for Biden and are really "Likely D" states.

There are some modest differences in how FiveThirtyEight and Cook's rank the states relative to each other. Cook's thinks Maine, Michigan and Florida are a bit more Trump leaning than FiveThirtyEight does relative to other states. But, there aren't huge differences in their rankings of the relative competitiveness of the swing states in 2020.


Widespread Higher Education Is New And Other Education Trends




From here.

In 1950, because WWII interrupted higher education for many people in born from 1915-1925 (ages 16-26 when the U.S. joined World War II, and 20-30 when World War II ended), the percentage of adults age 25-30 who had completed 4 year college degrees in the U.S. was at a record low. About 4% of white men, about 2.5% of white women, and about 1% of black men and women.


The Great Depression that led up to World War II also wasn't good for college attendance. Many people simply couldn't afford to stay in school to get a high school education, let alone a four year college education.

Now, that's changed. About 45% of white women, 35% of white men, 25% of black women, and 17% of black men who were aged 25-35 in 2015 had earned four year college degrees, and there was no sign that the trend was abating. 

Graduate degrees were rare indeed. They basically didn't exist prior to 1870. They have become much more common, with the rates of graduate degree completion between 2000 and 2010 doubled between then.
Since 2000, the number of people age 25 and over whose highest degree was a master’s has doubled to 21 million. The number of doctoral degree holders has more than doubled to 4.5 million. Now, about 13.1 percent of U.S. adults have an advanced degree, up from 8.6 percent in 2000.
From here






From here.

Public v. Private College Enrollment

Higher education enrollment in 2016 (which was 19.841 million in all) was about 74% public, 20% private non-profit (about 13.4% of the total at secular nonprofit institutions, and about 7.6% of the total at religiously affiliated institutions), and 6% for profit.

According to this source:
Religiously affiliated educational institutions often developed in response to social changes. For example, the world's first college charted to grant degrees to women was Wesleyan College in Macon, Georgia (1836). At the conclusion of the Civil War, the Freedman's Aid Society responded to absence of educational opportunity for newly freed slaves by creating institutes and colleges throughout the South. Many of these institutions continue their critical role in education in the early twenty-first century. Often church-related colleges began as academies or seminaries and then grew to college or university status. Many had short lives, closing as the result of social, demographic, political, and–quite often–financial reasons. Some colleges severed their relationship with the religious communities and continue in the twenty-first century as quality independent institutions. Among these are Vanderbilt University, Auburn University, University of Southern California, Oberlin College, and Princeton University. In 1881, 80 percent of the colleges in the United States were church related and private. In 2001, 20 percent of the colleges–approximately 980 institutions–had connection to a religious tradition. The "Digest of Educational Statistics, 2000," indicates that sixty-six religious groups in the United States currently sponsor colleges or universities. These institutions enroll more than 1.5 million students.
Notably, the share of higher education enrollment at private religiously affiliated institutions (about 7.6%) is quite close to that at the K-12 level discussed below (7.8%).

In both cases, the extent to which a religious affiliation meaningfully impacts the operations of the institution and is economically important, varies widely. Many, but not all, have undergone a shift from what:
George M. Marsden characterizes colleges and universities as moving from a perspective of "Protestant establishment" to one of "established nonbelief," a move toward embracing secularization and diminishing religious tradition.
The economic subsidy from affiliated religious institutions is now usually small, even though this wasn't necessarily true historically:
Religiously affiliated colleges and universities also receive expressions of partnerships and support from their sponsoring tradition. Financial support for the institutions usually represents less than 1 percent of their budgets; this is a radical decrease from the 1980s.

Figure 1 is from here.

But, since then, changed in federal financial aid policies have caused for profit higher education enrollments to plummet without offsetting gains in public high educational institutions and only modest gains in non-profit higher educational institution enrollments (mostly due to the successful conversion of a few large for profit institutions, like Ashford University and Grand Canyon University, from for profit to non-profit status).

Community college enrollments have also slipped in recent years, something that isn't very visible in measures of four year degree completion.

K-12 Education Enrollment Trends

As of 2015-2016 (the most recent statistics easily available to me), the national four year high school graduation rate in regular high school programs (as opposed, e.g., to GED programs) was 84.1%. In Iowa, it was 91.3%. In the District of Columbia, it was 69.3%.

Calculated in a more inclusive manner that counts people continuing to work towards a high school diploma after five years, or earning a high school diploma in an alternative program or with a GED, the overall national high school dropout rate was 6.1% for the same year, down more or less steadily from 27.2% in 1960, 15.0% in 1970, 14.1% in 1980, 12.1% in 1990, 10.9% in 2000, and 7.4% in 2010.

The current dropout rate (with the more inclusive measure) is 5.8% for white males, 6.2% for black males, 10.1% for Hispanic males, 4.6% for white females, 4.3% for black females, and 7.0% for Hispanic females.

Private v. Public Education


Table from CAPE.

Private K-12 education peaked around 1960 at 13.9% from which it declined to a 2014 low of 9.7%, and was lowest around 1920 at 7.3%.

About 10.2% of K-12 students attend private schools, 76% of which are religious (about 7.8% of the total) and 24% of which are secular (about 2.4% of the total). The nonsectarian, secular Montessori, Friends, Jewish, Islamic, and conservative Christian share have increased over the last 14 years, while the Roman Catholic, Adventist and other Protestant shares have declined.

The peak in private K-12 education around 1960 reflects resistance to school desegregation (Brown v. Board of Education was decided in 1954), which gradually waned, in part, due to growing comfort with desegregated schools and, in part, because de facto segregation based upon school attendance boundaries combined with white flight to the suburbs, tracking within schools, and school choice programs, provided alternatives that parents could find to circumvent school desegregation.

An older colleague at work, is his 60s, went to a private school in the District of Columbia at a time when most private schools in the District were not yet desegregated. 

The increase in non-sectarian and secular Montessori enrollment is largely a function of increased availability of voucher and charter school options in urban areas. Episcopal and Friends affiliated schools have draws similar to high prestige non-sectarian private schools, with Episcopal enrollment actually declining about 16% in absolute terms, and and the apparent 40% growth in Friends education in absolute terms probably partially being a function of rounding errors, although voucher programs may have helped in these cases as well.

The near doubling of the market share of Jewish affiliated K-12 enrollment, which is still a 50% increase in absolute terms, is probably largely attributable to the availability of voucher programs in areas with large Jewish populations (mostly in the Northeast Corridor), although increased concerns about anti-semitism and a desire to maintain a stronger Jewish identity could also play a part.

The increase in the Conservative Christian share largely reflects a steady enrollment in the face of a declining share of students attending private schools. There may also have been a fair amount of rebranding from Baptist and Calvinist to Conservative Christian.

In raw numbers, as opposed to percentage share figures, Roman Catholic education declined about 40% from 1992 (well after the peak) to 2016 and has probably declined further since then.

Declining Catholic and Protestant other than Conservative Christian enrollment largely reflects a shift to public schools and nonsectarian schools by parents who were primarily seeking to avoid what they perceived as "bad" desegregated public schools options, rather than because they were actively seeking religious instructions.

The growth in Islamic K-12 education reflects both a growing Muslim population in the U.S., mostly due to immigration, but in part, also due to conversion, and the availability of voucher programs.

Race and Medical School Admissions

Affirmative action in medical schools increased black and Latino medical school graduation rates by about 20%. This impact was significant, but much smaller than in top law schools. 
VEDANTAM: Well, several states have now banned schools from taking race into account. And this new analysis that I've looked at examines graduation rates at medical schools in California, Washington, Florida, Texas, Michigan and Nebraska. Now, schools in all these states have tried these techniques that we're talking about, and there are variations in how successful they are, but overall, there are strong patterns in the outcomes. I spoke with Liliana Garces at Penn State University, and along with David Mickey-Pabello, she's found that there's been a sharp drop in the number of black and Latino students graduating from medical schools in these states. Here she is. 
LILIANA GARCES: If you think about before the bans, for every 100 students that matriculated in medical schools in states with bans, there were 18 students of color. But after the bans, for every 100 students matriculated, there are now about 15.
From National Public Radio.

22 June 2020

Why Are They This Way? What Can We Do To Change Them?

On Facebook someone said
Try to think about how people became this way. Why do they think it is right? What can we do to respect people and talk across the divide? 
in response to this post:

五月色丁香综缴合
PucktographyJune 2 at 1:22 AM ·

This evening the town of Coeur d'Alene Idaho heard rumors that the same people who rumored to come in white vans into Spokane Washington last night were headed there. It was said these were the instigators that ruined a otherwise peaceful protest, broke into local business and vandalized. The local militia men and women responded with arriving all over downtown guarding all the major intersections. Store owners were boarding up their windows in preparation, while sentinels stood guard and others watched or enjoyed the local food and drink. There were some peaceful protesters there as well that were not bothered or hurt by the armed guards. North Idaho will not put up with Antifa or any group that threatens their towns. As always feel free to share and regardless of your political affiliation or viewpoints I hope you stay safe and enjoy the photos.
My response was as follows:
"What can we do to respect people and talk across the divide?" 
"We" in the general public can't talk across the divide. The gap is too wide and there is a metaphorical soundproof wall between us. All messages from the mainstream media, scientists, academia, school teachers, government officials, and "liberals" has been put on "blocked/ignore" status. Any talking to change their minds has to come from within - their extended families, or their own clergy, or people they do business with, or former members who have second thoughts.  
In the big picture, people in these communities are driven to this kind of movement and evolve culturally into this (1) through decades of economic stagnation and economic insecurity for non-college educated white men since the early 1970s that has left them with daily struggles and impaired their ability to have stable marriages, which they are seeking to blame on any scapegoats that they can (mostly the wrong ones like gays, blacks, Hispanics, and immigrants, rather than big business and government indifference), (2) the development of a white supremacist prison gang movement initially as a way to unite in response to minority street gangs that extended into prisons, that has continued to be a part of their lives after getting out, and (3) encouragement from sources like Fox News, less mainstream far right media and social network sources, clergy, and GOP leaders. This has also been plugged into a pre-existing anti-intellectual, law disregarding mountain man ethos in places like Idaho.  
Policies that would increase economic security for working class men, and that would reduce mass incarceration, would prevent prison gang formation when people are in gangs, and would encourage reintegration after getting out, and focusing on taking down demagogues in the GOP and corporate support for forces like Fox News, would help end these movements. 
GOP leaders know this in their bones even if they don't consciously understand things in those terms, which is why they are so adamantly opposed to universal health care, social services programs, minimum wage support, paid leave, and labor unions would would take away the economic stagnation and insecurity and fear that drive conservative political movements.